A probability index for fiddle sit-ins on the Dave Matthews Band 2026 tour. Higher scores mean Jake Simpson, Casey Driessen, or another guest fiddler is more likely to join.
UPDATED 1 August 202678 SHOWS54 PLAYED13 SIT-INS CONFIRMED
DMB ELEVATED
DMB NEUTRAL
DMB LOW
JAKE SIMPSON
CASEY DRIESSEN
TODAY · 14 JUN
02 · SCHEDULE
DMB Tourdates
03 · MODEL
How the score works
Model expected18 sit-ins
Actual13 sit-ins
Across the 54 played shows since spring 2025, the model expected ~18 fiddle sit-ins. Thirteen occurred. The model casts a slightly wider net than reality (better to surface a possible sit-in than miss one). The page tracks both numbers as the tour progresses.
Each show starts at an 18% baseline. Four inputs adjust the score: a shared festival bill, Jake Simpson's availability, regional signals from the other fiddlers in the rotation, and the recurring base rate.
Input · 01
+50
Shared festival bill. DMB and one of the tracked fiddlers on the same lineup. The strongest single signal: Wildlands and Farm Aid 40 in 2025 were both shared-bill sit-ins with Jake Simpson.
Input · 02
+30
Jake Simpson's availability. Tracked via Lukas Nelson's tour calendar (Jake's primary commitment) combined with Jake's own confirmed DMB sit-in nights. Long stretches without activity mean Jake is free to travel. The Gorge run in Aug 2025 happened during a 5-week Lukas gap.
Input · 03
+25
Regional signals. Casey Driessen (Carolinas), Jason Crosby (NY/NJ/CT tri-state), and Tatiana Hargreaves (Carolinas) each add a regional bump when DMB plays their home turf or near a published date.
Input · 04
+18
Baseline floor. Four tracked fiddlers in active rotation: Jake Simpson, Casey Driessen, Tatiana Hargreaves, and Jason Crosby. Sierra Hull is also confirmed for Gorge 9/6. Every show carries a non-trivial floor probability that a fiddle guest shows up.