Fiddle (Reprise)

A probability index for fiddle sit-ins on the Dave Matthews Band 2026 tour. Higher scores mean Jake Simpson, Casey Driessen, or another guest fiddler is more likely to join.

UPDATED  1 September 2026   SHOWS   PLAYED   SIT-INS CONFIRMED
DMB  ELEVATED
DMB  NEUTRAL
DMB  LOW
JAKE SIMPSON
CASEY DRIESSEN
TODAY ·
02 · SCHEDULE

DMB Tourdates

03 · MODEL

How the score works

Model expected — sit-ins
Actual — sit-ins

Each show starts at an 18% baseline. Four inputs adjust the score: a shared festival bill, Jake Simpson's availability, regional signals from the other fiddlers in the rotation, and the recurring base rate.

Input · 01
+50
Shared festival bill. DMB and one of the tracked fiddlers on the same lineup. The strongest single signal: Wildlands and Farm Aid 40 in 2025 were both shared-bill sit-ins with Jake Simpson.
Input · 02
+30
Jake Simpson's availability. Tracked via Lukas Nelson's tour calendar (Jake's primary commitment) combined with Jake's own confirmed DMB sit-in nights. Long stretches without activity mean Jake is free to travel. The Gorge run in Aug 2025 happened during a 5-week Lukas gap.
Input · 03
+25
Regional signals. Casey Driessen (Carolinas), Jason Crosby (NY/NJ/CT tri-state), and Tatiana Hargreaves (Carolinas) each add a regional bump when DMB plays their home turf or near a published date.
Input · 04
+18
Baseline floor. Four tracked fiddlers in active rotation: Jake Simpson, Casey Driessen, Tatiana Hargreaves, and Jason Crosby. Sierra Hull is also confirmed for Gorge 9/6. Every show carries a non-trivial floor probability that a fiddle guest shows up.

Past-show outcomes are kept on the page for calibration. The score's floor reflects this rate, and upcoming forecasts will adjust if it changes.

Tour calendars and sit-in outcomes refresh twice daily (10am and 10pm Pacific) via a scheduled job; the Updated timestamp at the top reflects the last run.

Tracked fiddlers: Jake Simpson (Lukas Nelson band, primary), Casey Driessen (solo / Bela Fleck collaborator, recurring), Tatiana Hargreaves (bluegrass fiddler, debuted 5 June Raleigh), Jason Crosby (NYC/NJ multi-instrumentalist, geo-triggered for tri-state shows). Sierra Hull is confirmed as the Gorge 9/6 opener, bonus fiddle in the room.

Sources: davematthewsband.com/tour, lukasnelson.com, setlist.fm, antsmarching.org, dmbalmanac.com, jambase.com. Tickets route to the official seller listed on the DMB tour page.